Modelo de estimación de tiempos y rendimientos con factores de incertidumbre basado en PERT para obras civiles: Caso aplicado a actividades de movimiento de tierras y fundaciones.

Abstract

This paper develops a model for estimating yields considering factors of uncertainty in the field of earthworks in civil engineering projects in Guayaquil. This model uses the PERT technique, in which task yields are calculated based on three assessments: optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic. Its validation involved the analysis of three real projects, comparing historical yields with those calculated using PERT. The technique is effective in estimating activities that can be standardized, such as clearing and cleaning, although for most processes with greater variability, such as excavation, removal, and compaction, the results were inadequate due to climatic, technical, and management conditions. In this case, they focused on operability as the most key element, which in this case is defined as the actual ability to execute activities under particular site conditions, including weather, equipment availability, logistics, and contingency management. Therefore, the result is that the PERT technique allows for optimized planning and presents it in a way that is more realistic in terms of schedules, provided that reliable field data is used and operability is considered the central focus of the study. In these cases, the research offers a methodological design that can be used in construction projects and suggests measures that focus on improving its use in civil engineering work.