Factores determinantes en la producción de arroz en situaciones climáticas adversas en la región costa del Ecuador.

Abstract

The Ecuadorian rice sector is one of the most important agricultural activities in the country, on which many farmers, small producers and low-income local communities depend. In fact, at a national level, rice is a very important crop for the country's commercialization and economy due to the high demand generated by this grass, which is the main input in the basic diet of Ecuadorians. However, just as there are opportunities, there are also challenges that have directly affected rice production. This research focuses on the development of several statistical models to predict the future dynamics of annual production in the coastal region and, in turn, determine which of the main climatic variables mainly affects rice production in order to reduce crop losses, optimize processes and have better decision-making that will allow clarifying supply and demand at a national level. The main objective is to determine which of the 3 variables has caused production to drop during harvest years and thus mitigate these impacts through more efficient adaptive strategies.