Factores determinantes de una Burbuja de precios en el sector inmobiliario en Ecuador.

Abstract

This graduation work analyzes the different determining factors that can cause a price bubble in the real estate sector in Ecuador, to carry it out, possible influential factors are investigated based on cases of real estate bubble that have been experienced in other countries and their methods to prevent them from occurring or to recover from this effect, then, 9 variables are defined to work such as: prices of construction materials (iron, cement, sand, stone, blocks), monthly payment of a resident, foreign direct investment, mortgage loans, and population, where these data are then investigated quantitatively for the case of Ecuador. Finally, two different types of statistical models are carried out, such as a bilateral correlation model and a linear regression model; in the first model, the factors that are statistically correlated to the price per m2 of a house are determined, and based on these significantly correlated factors, the linear regression models are carried out, which allow determining an equation to estimate the costs per m2 in case of a change in data.