Análisis de la incertidumbre y la volatilidad del precio del petróleo en la economía ecuatoriana.

Abstract

The price of a barrel of oil, being a raw material, its development over time is volatile, a characteristic of products of basic origin, which is related to its adjustments in the market by supply and demand. Based on what was described, the research topic was developed whose general objective was to analyze the fall in the international price of oil to determine the effects it causes on the economy of Ecuador. The methodology used was an exploratory investigation, with an explanatory scope and a mixed approach with a documentary review of the information that rests in the control entities. Among the main results, it was determined that Ecuadorian oil receives a price penalty for its inferior quality, a criterion that the American Petroleum Institute takes based on gravity, sulfur content and acidity. Based on these criteria, it was found that the volatility of the Ecuadorian oil price is higher than that of its benchmarks, the American WTI, the European Brent and the Russian Urals. This volatility has an important influence on the Ecuadorian economy, since the variations have effects on the consolidated trade balance, because the non-oil company shows a deficit and those losses are balanced by the oil company. Therefore, it is concluded that the fall in the price of oil has negative effects on the economy, given the dependence to balance its accounts and add value to the trade balance of Ecuador where exports of goods and services represent 25.1% of GDP; In other words, when there is a drop in the price of oil, exports, imports and GDP will be reduced in accordance with the provisions of the correlation model.