Análisis del impacto de las exportaciones de camarón ecuatoriano después de la salida de Reino Unido de la Unión Europea (Brexit).

Abstract

The exit of the United Kingdom from the European Union (Brexit) is an event which took more than two years of process, which will end in December 2020. In this way, the countries which had trade relations with the British country through the European Union are at a disadvantage because tariff barriers would change according to the preferences of each country. Ecuador anticipated this situation and signed an agreement in which it protects its products exported to the British country. The trade agreement must be ratified within a specific period to benefit from this advantage in January 2021. Ecuadorian shrimp is included in this agreement, for this reason this study analyzes the competitiveness of shrimp exporting companies that sell their product in the UK and on the European market. Thus, a statistical forecasting model was used based on the total monthly exports from 2015 to 2019, and estimates were made up to the year 2023, during which a positive impact on the variables is demonstrated, in other words an increase in exports from Ecuador to the United Kingdom with the condition of maintaining the same tariff preferences as with the European Union, which would generate great economic development for the country in the long term.