Tendencias de las exportaciones ecuatorianas de camarón a Estados Unidos (2020–2024) y riesgos comerciales ante posibles cambios regulatorios.

Abstract

This study examines the performance of Ecuadorian shrimp exports to the United States market during the period 2015–2025, with emphasis on recent tariff changes and their implications for sector competitiveness. The objective is to analyze historical export trends, describe the U.S. market, and evaluate, from a prospective perspective, the potential effects of the new tariff rates implemented since August 2025. The research uses a mixed-methods approach. On one hand, the quantitative component seeks to describe Ecuadorian shrimp exports at the global level and to the U.S. market as a specific destination. On the other hand, the qualitative component gathers the perceptions of different stakeholders in the Ecuadorian shrimp sector regarding the potential impacts and risks associated with tariff changes, as well as the possible strategies the country could implement to address them. The results show that Ecuadorian shrimp exports have maintained a resilient growth trajectory, associated with structural improvements in competitiveness and a relatively inelastic international demand. It is also observed that Ecuador is increasingly directing its supply toward the U.S. market, which is characterized by high price sensitivity and strong competition among supplier countries.