Estructura y evolución de las redes comerciales de Sudamérica con EE.UU. y China : un análisis de centralidad, concentración (2000-2024).

Abstract

The objective of this study is to analyze the evolution of trade networks in South America and its two main extra-regional partners: the United States and China, during the period 2000–2024, identifying historical patterns and projecting scenarios for 2025–2030. The central problem lies in understanding how China's growing importance has modified the structure and balance of these relationships, affecting the centrality and concentration of the region's countries. The econometric models used are model panel data, Logit, and AUTO ARIMA projections. Colombia, Argentina, Ecuador, Brazil, Peru, and Chile were used as samples; and centrality, concentration, and trade network structure indicators were calculated. The results show that export concentration drives centrality toward China; degree and closeness indicators highlight direct bilateral ties; and intermediation reflects a more limited role of South American countries in the network. Furthermore, a trend of Chinese dominance in the region by 2030 is shown. The proposal is to develop trade policies that contribute to market diversification, taking full advantage of opportunities in the Asian market, as well as policies that help mitigate the risks of excessive dependence. The conclusions confirm that the observed transformation is due to structural and circumstantial factors, and that the region faces the challenge of strategically adapting to this new trade context.