Determinantes en la migración en Ecuador. Periodo 2000 al 2023.

Abstract

The present work aims to analyze the situation of the migratory balance in the face of the different variables that occur in Ecuador in the period 2000 to 2023. A quantitative cross-sectional methodology is used, a correlational scope, cross-validation and predictive models such as ARIMA and VAR that explain the different factors that alter migration. In this econometric model we use a period of 33 years to analyze with greater reliability the same that will offer us with future predictions, starting with multiple regression to cross-validation without taking into account external factors such as global economic crises. The review of concepts is based on theories such as inequality, lack of employment, economic levels such as poverty, GDP, insecurity of the country, remittances received, consumption. In conclusion, it is highlighted that the model is suitable for predictions of the migratory balance, emphasizing how entries and exits of migrants from 2024 to 2027, reinforced by symmetry calculations such as RMSE and MAE, whose values reinforce and sustain the reliability of the predictive model.