Modelo econométrico de la demanda del turismo en el Parque Nacional Galápagos : periodo enero 2017 – marzo 2024.

Abstract

The objective of this study was to identify the factors that influence tourism demand in the Galapagos. Using a non-experimental and longitudinal design, historical data from January 2017 to March 2024 were analyzed using the ARDL model and the error correction model (ECM). The results show that the significant variables that affect tourism demand are the GDP of the United States (coefficient of 83.69122, significant at 1%), country risk (coefficient of -2.843242, significant at 1%) and the consumer confidence index. (coefficient of -13.50805, significant at 1%). No significance was found in the cost of transportation, international homicides, and cost of living in the Galapagos. A relationship of long-term equilibrium and short-term dynamics was identified between the significant variables and tourism demand, correcting 34% of any deviation of tourism demand with respect to its long-term equilibrium in the following period. It is concluded that the GDP of the United States, the country risk and consumer confidence index are the main determinants of tourism demand in the Galapagos. Authorities and tourism operators are recommended to design strategies based on these factors to attract and manage visitors, optimizing resources and improving the tourist experience while minimizing the environmental impact.