Impacto de la volatilidad del precio internacional del camarón y cacao en la exportación del Ecuador periodo 2014-2024.

Abstract

The work aims to establish the impact of the volatility of the international price of shrimp and cocoa on Ecuadorian exports, period 2014-2024*. Data such as international prices and export prices of Ecuador, exported tons and export income were taken. They are organized in time series expressed in months, and were also treated with a PCA. For the shrimp industry, a price projection was made with Arima and a Gradient Boosting Machine model to determine the behavior of exports based on projected price changes. For the cocoa sector, price projections were made with the VEC model and a Lasso regression to analyze the behavior of exports in tons. Additionally, complementary tests were added in both industries such as Pearson coefficient, price elasticity, cointegration tests, ADF and Kpss tests, Durbin Watson and regressions. It was found that shrimp exports are significantly impacted by the variability of international prices, while cocoa is not significantly impacted. Important results that reflect the vulnerability and strength of two different industries, highlighting the need to diversify the economy to optimize opportunities.