Impacto del aumento del Impuesto al Valor Agregado (IVA) en Ecuador : análisis del cambio normativo y su influencia en la recaudación fiscal y el presupuesto estatal.

Abstract

This paper analyzes the impact of the increase in Value Added Tax (VAT) in Ecuador, conducting an analysis of the regulatory change and its influence on fiscal revenue and the state budget. Additionally, it examines the implications of the VAT increase from 12% to 15% in Ecuador implemented in 2024. The study focuses on the fiscal and economic effects, evaluating tax revenue, consumption, inflation, and the behavior of economic agents. Using a mixed approach of quantitative and qualitative analysis, data is collected from official sources such as the Central Bank of Ecuador, the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses, and the Internal Revenue Service, complemented by interviews and surveys with key economic actors. The results indicate that the VAT increase has had a significant impact on tax revenue, increasing government income. However, adverse effects are also observed on household consumption and inflation, as well as adjustments in prices and operating costs by companies. The research concludes that although the VAT increase has improved tax revenue, it is necessary to consider complementary measures to mitigate its negative effects on the economy and the well-being of the population. This study provides an empirical basis for future fiscal policy decisions in Ecuador and contributes to the academic debate on the effectiveness and equity of consumption taxes.