Análisis comparativo de los efectos del gasto público y de la inversión en el crecimiento económico de dos economías dolarizadas. Caso Ecuador y El Salvador, periodo 2000 – 2017.

Abstract

The present study has the purpose of making a comparison of the effects of public expenditure and investment on economic growth of Ecuador and El Salvador in the period 2000-2017. The Vector Error Correction (VEC) methodology, Granger Causality Test, Johansen Cointegration Test, Impulse-Response Function and Hodrick-Prescott Filter were used. The main findings were that, in the case of Ecuador, the variables that positively affect GDP were: Expenditure destined to the payment of Interest, Salaries, Other Expenses and Other Investment; however, the variable Purchase of Goods and Services generates a negative impact. On the other hand, for El Salvador the variables Consumption Expenditure and Capital Investment have a negative impact on GDP, while the variable Interest Expenditure has a positive impact on the economic growth of El Salvador. Additionally, in terms of cyclicality, the policy of expenses destined to payment of interests and salaries in Ecuador turned out to be anticyclical; in the same way, in El Salvador, the expenditure destined to consumption and capital investment fulfilled the same characteristic. However, the cycle of public spending policy on the Purchase of Goods and Services in Ecuador was procyclical.