Las fluctuaciones del precio del cacao y su incidencia en el producto interno bruto agrícola periodo 2010-2016.

Abstract

Agricultural Products tend to be highly dependent on International Prices because it determines whether it is exported or whether it remains in the domestic market. It has been shown that the Agricultural GDP of Ecuador has fallen in percentage share with respect to other sectors, in addition, the national environment since mid-August 2014 has been complex and the first half of 2018 Cocoa Exports decreased by 16.7% in relation to the semester of the previous year. The Background of the Investigation contributes to the determination of the variables of study: 1. the Factors of the Production. 2. The Market Price and its Fluctuations. 3. Changes in Demographics of the Rural Sector. On a Theoretical Basis, according to Theodore W Schultz's Theory, prices do affect production; also, according to the economic theory of climate change, the most vulnerable sectors are the agricultural sectors in developing Countries; and according to Microeconomics, the Productive Factors limit the productive capacity of the Agricultural Sector. In the Methodology, a multiple log - log model was used, through a series of times of annual periodicity from 1975 to 2017, a multicollinearity test (FIV) and cointegration will be carried out. The Price Elasticity is 0.15, that is, for each percentage point that increases the Average Closing Price of Cocoa, production will increase by 0.15 percentage points, there is no multicollinearity and there is no random walk.